Bill Sparkman

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The National Association of Realtors reports that existing-home sales rose again in January, the third improvement in the past four months. Sales of previously owned homes, including single-family, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops, increased 4.3 percent to an seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.57 million. Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said the trend upward is in line with the underlying fundamentals including pent-up household formation, record-low mortgage rate, low prices, sustained job creation, and rising rent. The national median existing-home price was $154,700. More here.

The number of homes for sale nationwide fell for the eighth-straight month in January and is now 23.2 percent below last year’s levels. According to data from Realtor.com, inventory dropped 6.59 percent from the month before which, along with stabilizing prices, is a positive sign for the housing market. Inventory fell in 145 of 146 markets tracked and the average age of the for-sale housing stock has also fallen. Median list prices, though down month-over-month, are still nearly 4.0 percent above year ago levels and recent dips could be due to seasonal factors. Decreasing inventory levels and stabilizing prices, along with gains in the labor market and low mortgage rates, are positive indicators that housing will continue to improve and recover this year, according to the report. More here.

The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development’s new residential construction statistics for January show privately-owned housing starts rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 699,000, exceeding economists’ expectations. The increase put starts 1.5 percent above December and 9.9 percent above the year before, when the annual rate was 636,000. Permits to build rose 0.7 percent over December and are 19.0 percent above January 2011. More here.

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Builder sentiment rose for the fifth consecutive month in February, according to the National Association of Builders’ Housing Market index. The index measures builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes on a scale where any number over 50 means more builders view the market as good than poor. In February, the index rose from 25 to 29 and reached its highest level in more than four years. David Crowe, NAHB’s chief economist, said this is the longest sustained improvement the index has seen since 2007 but cautioned that the HMI is still low. Still, builder confidence has now doubled since last September. The gauges measuring current sales and expectations for the next six months both rose by five points in February. More here.

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According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Applications Survey, demand for home loans was flat last week, with the Market Composite Index dipping just 1.0 percent after surging 7.5 percent the week before. The drop was caused by declines in the Purchase Index, while the Refinance Index increased 0.8 percent. The refinance share of all mortgage activity was 81.1 percent. The average loan size in January was $226,000, up from $225,000 in December 2011 and $207,000 a year ago. Also, average mortgage rates rose, with the interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increasing to 4.08 percent from 4.05 percent the week before. The average 30-year rate for jumbo loans was 4.30 percent. More here.

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Fannie Mae’s National Housing Survey polls 1,000 Americans each month about their attitudes toward homeownership, mortgage rates, the economy, personal finances, and overall consumer confidence. January’s survey finds Americans more optimistic about the economy and the housing market. Specifically, the percentage of participants who said the economy is on the right track was up 8 percentage points from the month before and the number who said it was on the wrong track dropped 6.0 percent. On average, respondents expect home prices to rise 1.0 percent over the next year. Only 16 percent of Americans expect home prices to decline, while 79 percent said they’d rise or stay the same over the next 12 months. Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s vice president and chief economist, said home price expectations have been rising for the past four months and consumer sentiment has rebounded to a level witnessed a year ago. More here.

According to Gallup, Americans’ economic confidence and sense of well being both rose in January. Gallup’s Life Evaluation Index, which asks Americans to rate their current and future lives on a scale from 0 to 10, climbed to its highest level in 11 months, increasing to 50.1 from 48.4 in December. The number of respondents classified as thriving as opposed to struggling or suffering increased to 53.4 percent from 51.9 percent the month before. Americans’ improving sense of well being is tied to gains in economic confidence. According to Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index, which has been rising since August of last year, the country’s confidence in the economy is at its highest level since May 2011, though it isn’t as high as it was a year ago. More here and here.

The National Association of Realtors Housing Affordability Index reached a record high in 2011. The index, which began in 1970, measures the relationship between median home price, median family income, and average mortgage interest rate. The index defines 100 as the point where a median-income household has exactly enough income to qualify to purchase a median-priced home. In 2011, the index reached 184.5. Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said the Midwest and South have the greatest concentration of areas where home buyers have the strongest purchasing power. According to Yun, the West Coast and Northeastern Seaboard have higher-priced homes which accounts for lower affordability ratings. More here.

The number of foreclosures completed in 2011 fell 24 percent to 830,000 from 1.1 million in 2010. Data released by CoreLogic shows that, not only were foreclosures down year-over-year, but they also dropped 8.4 percent in December. Mark Fleming, CoreLogic’s chief economist, said the inventory of foreclosed properties has begun to shrink and the pace at which properties are entering foreclosure is slowing. At the end of 2011, 3.4 percent of all homes were in the foreclosure inventory. And though the rate at which foreclosures are completed has been slowed, in part, due to judicial and regulatory constraints, a declining number of foreclosures is key to a healthy housing market. More here and here.

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According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Applications Survey, demand for mortgage loans surged last week. The Market Composite Index, which measures total loan application volume, was up 7.5 percent over the previous week due to a 9.4 percent spike in the Refinance Index. The Purchase Index gained 0.1 percent from the previous week. Refinance activity represented 80.5 percent of all loan applications largely because of another dip in average mortgage rates. The average contract interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell to 4.05 percent from 4.09 percent the previous week. The drop brought rates to their lowest level in the history of the survey. The average mortgage rate for 30-year jumbo loans also hit a record low, dropping to 4.29 percent from 4.33 percent the week before. More here.